Strategies & Statistics

On this page you will find some stratagies that can be used to make a profit from our ratings, it would be nice if we could just back the top rated horse in every race and watch the profits roll in but really it requires a little more thought and strategy, so below are some ideas and useful statistics.


Picking Winners

Approximately 60% of all winners are found in the top 3 'SF' rated horses (the top 3 on the race card), so this is a good place to start, however keep an eye out for horses lower down the list that are top rated in another catagory or have outstanding trainer/jockey statistics as they shouldnt be discounted, take this example from 11/11/2019:



As you can see Fleur Irlandaise had only had 1 run in the UK but produced a decent LTO speed figure, the 2nd best in the lineup and has no real negatives, it won at 100/1 (512 BSP!). Its worth noting that the 2nd and third placed horses are ranked 2nd & 3rd overall. If you look in the 'OR +/-' column, the top rated horse 'Organdi' was carrying 11 pounds more weight than it last won at (LWM) or has ever carried in it's career (CHM), so can be forgiven for coming nowhere.

This is an extreme example, we dont get 100/1 winners everyday, but you'll find that if we have a winner from lower down the list it will usually have something going for it like good speed ratings or trainer form. Sometimes of course, the 1st, 2nd & 3rd placed horses in a race will all be from the bottom of the race card with nothing but orange and red colours next to their name, ratings are not foolproof and anything can happen in a race, but generally the horses with the best ratings win and place more often and that gives us our edge to make a profit in the long term.

Some horses will not have had any runs in the UK and therefore will not have any ratings, they will be at the bottom of the race card with lots of 0s next to them, watch out for these, just because we dont have any information about them doesnt mean they are not a contender in the race. As you can see in the example below, 'Mick Pastor', a french horse has had no UK runs for us to rate.



Stats & profitability

Here are some useful stats:

Backing the top rated SF horse when the rating is clear by 5 points produced a profit of 481 points (BSP) from 3721 runners (ROI: 13%) when backing at odds of between 4/1 & 25/1. If you restrict this to only horses that have run within the last 30 days the profitability increases, 566 points (BSP) from 3080 runners (ROI: 18%). If you restrict this even further to only horses that are in the top 4 of the MR rating we get 581 points (BSP) from 2849 runners (ROI: 20%).

If your into backing at shorter prices then just tighten up the criteria a little, for instance, backing the top rated SF horse when the rating is clear by 15 points and in the top 2 ranked in the MR and AVG speed ratings produced a profit of 95 points (BSP) from 546 runners (ROI: 17%) when backing at odds of 4/1 or less.

Anaysing a race

Although following the 'top rated' systems above will probably continue to produce a profit long term, the top rated horse is not always the best bet.

It's best to analyse the race in further detail as sometimes the the better bet will be a runner from further down the card, and sometimes the race will be better left alone, take this example:


I would consider all the runners in the red box to be contenders in this race, maybe with a slight question mark over 'Furzig' and 'Kasbaan' due to their high LWM rating, also Furzig hasnt managed to win or place in this class of race either so that's another negative for him and for me eliminates him as a possible winner. With 5 possible contenders left this is a race I would either leave alone, dutch several runners or go for a Tricfecta as there are too many contenders to narrow down to just one, it was evetually won by 'Victory Bond', with 'Pactolus' 2nd and 'Kasbaan' 3rd. Any horse could win of course but by applying the type of reasoning outlined above you can narrow the field down to a few possible contenders which will be in the win and place positions more often than not.

A lot of the time you will notice a runner at big odds near the top of the racecard that has poor stats and might be avoided by most people, but if you look more closely you will see that they are actually false negatives, look at this example. The trainer and jockey form for 'Uncle Bernie' are terrible, all red, but the TJ form of the other top rated runners isn't much better, so this is a false negative.

Also, Uncle Bernie's form doesn't look too great, a line of orange 0s. If we expand the form history for this runner we can see that his last few runs resulted in placings of 8th, 7th, 5th, not great, but upon further inspection just looking at races at the same distance as today's he's had 2 runs where he was ony beaten by 7.5 lenghts and one of those was in a race that was 2 classes higher than today's and carrying 16 pounds more weight than today. Given that he has excellent speed ratings and the potenetial negatives are not too bad, I'd consider this a decent EW bet at 22/1, as it happened he won.

The master 'SF' rating does an excellent job of shuffling the potential contenders in a race to the top of racecard but by doing a little further analysis of the contenders in the race rather than just blindly picking the top rated horse you will have much greater success.

TIP: Be careful with All Weather racing, this can be a little less predictable than Turf racing. When picking selections on the AW it pays to pay special attention to jockey form and horses with a recent run.


Laying

Our strategy for laying is obviously going to be opposite to that of trying to find winners, were looking towards the bottom of the table to try and find short priced runners that have poor ratings and can be confidently opposed. Again, watch out for horses with no runs in the UK, these are poorly rated because we have no information on them and should really be left alone for laying purposes.

Take this example of a good lay from the 15/11/2019:



Peltwell is ranked 2nd worst overall, has no stand out 'green' ratings in the other catagories and has had plenty of past UK runs for us to get a measure of him, the odds are only 2.38, it came 4th, beaten by a long way. As with backing horses it's best to get on as early as possible as the odds will generally rise throughout the day.

Since April 2018, there have been 3651 runners with a morning price of 6/1 or less that were ranked 7th or worse on the SF rating, 84% of these lost, producing a lay profit of 731 points (to early prices). But take note, the lay profit to BSP is -46 points, this is due to the fact that the odds will sometimes drift to silly prices and then win, so it's advisable to get on early rather than take BSP.



Forecasts (Exactas/Trifectas/etc.)

As the horses that win and place are more regularly found towards the top of the racecard you can often land some big priced forecast bets, take this one for example:

Putting the top 3 rated horses in a combination Trifecta bet (picking 3 horses to come 1st, 2nd & 3rd in any order) would have cost £6 and returned £570. The trick with this is to make sure the top rated horses are at decent odds, if your Trifecta contains a short prices favourite it will lower your return dramtically. There will be losing runs with this strategy, but when it pays it pays big and the top 3 placed horses in a race are quite often the top 3 rated on the Speedform racecard.